If you’re thinking about buying or selling in Edmonton this fall, July’s numbers gave us some real clues about what’s coming. Let’s break down what actually happened, and what I think it means for the months ahead.
What Happened in July
Home sales slowed down. There were 2,535 homes sold in July, that’s down 7.6% from June and 11% lower than July of last year.
At the same time, the number of homes for sale barely changed. New listings dipped just 1% from June. So fewer buyers were shopping, but sellers kept listing at about the same pace. That’s why total inventory (the number of homes sitting on the market) climbed to 17.9% higher than a year ago.
In plain terms: there are more homes to choose from, and fewer people buying them. That’s a shift toward a buyer’s market.
Prices reflected that shift too. The average home sale price dropped 1.8% from June, landing at $475,079. There’s also a number called the benchmark price (a more accurate measure than the average, since it isn’t skewed by a few expensive or cheap sales). That benchmark price was $429,100 in July, down slightly from June, and exactly flat compared to a year ago.
So home values aren’t crashing. But they’ve basically stopped growing, and they dipped a little for two months in a row. That’s worth paying attention to.
What’s Happening by Home Type
Not every kind of home is behaving the same way. Here’s the simple version.
Detached houses are holding up best. Prices are still up slightly from a year ago, and fewer new listings came onto the market in July, which is helping keep this segment more stable.
Semi-detached homes have a lot more competition among sellers right now. New listings are up 12.5% from last year, but buyer demand hasn’t kept pace, and prices dropped the second most of any home type this month.
Row houses and townhomes saw the biggest drop in sales of any category, down 16.5% from last year, along with the sharpest price decline month to month.
Condos are the one to watch. Sales dropped a striking 21.3% from last year, by far the steepest decline in the market. But prices actually went up slightly. That might sound good if you own a condo, but here’s the catch: sellers appear to be pulling their listings instead of competing for fewer buyers. That’s propping up prices, at least for now. If that trend continues, it’s not necessarily a healthy sign, it may just be a market quietly losing steam.
What I Think Happens Next (Through the End of the Year)
Most market updates just say “things should pick up a bit in fall.” I want to give you something more specific and honest about why, with the caveat that these are directional estimates based on current trends, not a formal forecast model.
Sales: I expect activity to stay a bit slow through August, then pick up somewhat in September and October, landing somewhere around 2,700 to 2,900 sales per month. That would be a real improvement from July, but still below where the market was last fall. One big reason it likely won’t bounce back faster: the Bank of Canada has kept interest rates unchanged since December, and isn’t expected to cut rates at its next decision on September 2nd. Lower rates are usually what fuels a strong fall rebound. Without that this year, any recovery will probably be slower and steadier.
Prices: If prices keep softening the way they have the past two months, I expect the benchmark price to actually dip below last year’s level sometime this fall, possibly in October or November. That would be a real shift worth noticing, not just normal month to month noise.
Why this probably won’t turn into a bigger downturn: Edmonton is currently attracting more people moving here from other provinces than any other major Canadian city, and Alberta is expected to gain roughly 24,000 more people from interprovincial moves this year. That’s a real strength working in this market’s favour. It won’t undo the current slowdown overnight, but it should help keep things from getting significantly worse, assuming that migration trend holds through fall.
The one thing worth watching closely: keep an eye on how many new listings show up each month, not just how many homes sell. If sellers start pulling back the way condo sellers already have, that’s usually one of the earliest signs a market is stabilizing, often before the sales numbers show it.
What This Means for You
If you’re buying, you have more room to negotiate right now than you’ve had in a while, and that’s likely to continue through fall. Condos and townhomes are where you’ll find the most flexibility on price.
If you’re selling, price it right the first time. Homes priced to today’s market, not to what a similar home sold for back in the spring, are the ones selling fastest. Overpricing right now just means sitting longer and cutting the price later anyway.
If you’re investing, condos carry the most short-term risk but possibly the most long-term opportunity, since sellers are pulling listings rather than dropping price, meaning the segment hasn’t fully repriced yet. Semi-detached homes have the most new supply relative to demand, which could mean better entry pricing for rental strategies. With the Bank of Canada on hold, financing costs aren’t likely to improve soon, so entry decisions should be based on price and fundamentals rather than waiting on rates.
If you’re just watching the market, the next few months will tell us a lot. Either Edmonton’s population growth is enough to keep this market steady, or this slowdown has further to run.
