The Edmonton real estate market in 2025 continues to favour sellers, but with notable shifts that savvy buyers and sellers need to understand. While we remain in a seller’s market, trends indicate we are moving toward the lower end of a balanced market, where both sides gain more influence and strategy becomes key.
First-Time Home Buyers: Unlocking New Opportunities
The recently introduced federal First-Time Home Buyer GST Rebate is a major game-changer for Canada’s housing market. Eligible buyers can now claim up to $50,000 back on newly built homes priced up to $1 million (with a phase-out up to $1.5 million), significantly lowering the cost barrier and making homeownership more accessible.
This powerful incentive means first-time buyers can enter the market with greater confidence, an important factor as market dynamics evolve.
What We’re Seeing: Price Testing and Strategic Selling
Inventory has increased, but it’s still not abundant. Sellers are actively testing the market by listing homes at higher price points to gauge interest. After initial listing periods, sometimes just a week, we’re witnessing significant price reductions aimed at generating traffic and stimulating bidding wars.
This pricing tactic creates intense competition among buyers, but also signals a market where pricing strategy and timing are crucial. Buyers who understand these patterns can avoid costly overbids, while sellers who price accurately from the start stand to gain more stability.
A Market in Transition: From Seller’s Market Toward Balance
The sales-to-new-listings ratio is gradually trending downward from the peak seller’s market levels but still sits firmly above balanced market thresholds—indicating sellers still hold the edge, though less dominantly than before.
We’re beginning to see inventory levels rise and prices stabilize, particularly in key centers like Edmonton, where a balanced market is on the horizon. This means buyers have more negotiating power, and sellers need to be more thoughtful and flexible.
Bold Prediction: Stability and Opportunity by Year-End
By the end of 2025, expect Alberta’s market to settle near a balanced state, with inventory increasing to around three months and price growth moderating to 2–3%. This shift will make the market more accessible to buyers without removing opportunities for sellers who adapt.
Government programs like the GST rebate, combined with evolving market conditions, will empower more first-time buyers, while seasoned buyers and sellers will benefit from a more transparent, stable environment.
What This Means for You
- First-time buyers: Take advantage of the GST rebate and enter a market that’s gradually leveling.
- Buyers overall: Use the current seller’s market tactics to your advantage—know when sellers are testing prices and be ready to negotiate strategically.
- Sellers: Price smart from day one to avoid drastic reductions later. Understanding buyer behaviour or can help you maximize your sale.
- Everyone: This market rewards those who stay informed, patient, and proactive.
Final Thoughts
Alberta’s real estate market is evolving, but it’s still very much a seller’s market. Knowing how to navigate pricing strategies and government incentives will help you make confident, strategic decisions. Ready to make your move? Let’s talk about how these trends impact your goals.
